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Evaluating prior predictions of production and

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology to be used prior to history matching for evaluation of the initial ensemble of large models with large amounts of

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Dec 01, 2019  PDF It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual comparison... Find, read and cite all the research you ...

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

PDF - It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual comparison between actual observations and data predictions prior to data assimilation. If the model is appropriate, then the observed data should look plausible when compared to the distribution of realizations of simulated data. The

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Fig. 4 One realization of 3D seismic noise (top) and one realization of 4D seismic noise (bottom) for the Norne model. The G-segment is inside the rectangular area. Units of impedances: (m/s).(g/cc) - "Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data"

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

A methodology for determining the suitability of a model before data assimilation, particularly aimed for real cases with large numbers of model parameters, large amounts of data, and correlated observation errors is proposed. It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

In the original model, the parameters were set to fixed values - "Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data" Table 3 Input parameters of the Norne PEM. ... {Alfonzo2019EvaluatingPP, title={Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data}, author={Miguel Alfonzo and Dean S. Oliver}, journal={Computational ...

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Fig. 7 Prior predictive distribution based on the model after moving completion of well E-4AH. Top row shows 20 realizations of perturbed simulated RFT data (blue) in the Garn formation of well F-4H (July 2001) compared with observations (red). Water and gas production rates in well E-4AH are shown in middle two rows, with the times of the 4D seismic surveys shown by the green

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Article “Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data” Detailed information of the J-GLOBAL is a service based on the concept of Linking, Expanding, and Sparking, linking science and technology information which hitherto stood alone to support the generation of ideas. By linking the information entered, we provide opportunities to make unexpected discoveries

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Oct 08, 2019  It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual comparison between actual observations and data predictions prior to data assimilation. If the model is appropriate, then the observed data should look plausible when compared to the distribution of realizations of

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Article “Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data” Detailed information of the J-GLOBAL is a service based on the concept of Linking, Expanding, and Sparking, linking science and technology information which hitherto stood alone to support the generation of ideas. By linking the information entered, we provide opportunities to make unexpected discoveries

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Analysis of time-lapse seismic and production data for ... - OUP

Step 2 involves seismic forward modelling and interpreting the 4D amplitude changes maps and evaluating the seismic ... illustrate how T P is applied to OF P values (i.e. prior to ... these higher errors. Rather than being the best, a Type 1 model indicates the optimal compromise between the quality of seismic and production data predictions ...

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Evaluating, Benchmarking, and Improving Performance-Based Earthquake

A methodology for evaluating component-level loss predictions of the FEMA P-58 seismic performance assessment procedure. Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Cremen, G. Baker, J. W. (2018). Quantifying the benefits of building instruments to FEMA P-58 rapid post-earthquake damage and loss predictions. Engineering Structures, 176, 243-253.

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National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) was created in 1980 by legislation reauthorizing the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). The Council provides advice and recommendations to the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on earthquake predictions and related scientific research, in support of the ...

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Prior predictive distribution based on the initial model of ...

Same for water production rate in well E-4AH, with the times of the 4D seismic surveys shown by the green diamonds (middle row), and for change in

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Analysis, Evaluation, and Improvement of Performance-Based Earthquake ...

Loss predictions are evaluated using data observed in previous seismic events, to understand the degree to which they reflect real-life consequences of earthquakes. A methodology is developed for evaluating the ability of FEMA P-58 component-level losses to predict damage observed for groups of buildings.

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Assimilating 4D Seismic Data: Big Data Into Big Models

We will develop methods for calibrating large reservoir models to seismic and production data such that errors in forecasts are reduced and uncertainty is properly quantified. Additionally, the data are known to have errors in them and neither the reservoir flow model nor the seismic model is perfect. ... Evaluating prior predictions of ...

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An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990

Jan 01, 2001  From 1990 to 1998. an annual average of 13 earthquakes occurred in the monitored. area of 3743 cells. In an average CSB prediction, which covers 305 cells. there are 3. earthquakes correctly ...

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Probabilistic falsification of prior geologic uncertainty with seismic ...

Jun 09, 2020  Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data 8 October 2019 Computational Geosciences, Vol. 23, No. 6 A cross-validation framework to extract data features for reducing structural uncertainty in subsurface heterogeneity

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Earthquake prediction - Wikipedia

Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region". Earthquake prediction is sometimes distinguished from earthquake forecasting, which can

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Analysis and Calibration of 4D Seismic Data prior to 4D Seismic ...

Time-lapse or 4D seismic data is obtained by acquiring different 3D seismic surveys throughout the producing life of a hydrocarbon field. Due to the capabilities of 4D data to provide spatial information on the main reservoir changes due to production, time-lapse data has increasingly been used together with production data in the calibration of reservoir simulations models

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Ensemble-Based Seismic and Production Data Assimilation Using

Apr 08, 2021  In the proposed method, the prior distribution of the model variables, for example the porosity field, is a selection-Gaussian distribution, which allows modeling of the multimodal behavior of the posterior ensemble. ... Seismic and production data are assumed to be repeatedly measured in time and the reservoir model is updated every time new ...

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Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of USGS 3D Seismic

May 26, 2010  Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of USGS 3D Seismic Model of the San Francisco Bay Area with Broadband Seismograms

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Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of Usgs 3d Seismic

Description: Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of Usgs 3d Seismic Model of the San Francisco Bay Area with Broadband Seismograms (left) Snapshot of vertical component dis- placement for an earthquake near Glen Ellen with BDSN and USArray broadband stations (green triangles). (right) Comparison of observed (blue) and computed (red) three ...

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

History Matching of Production and 4D Seismic Data: Application to the... History Matching of Production and 4D Seismic Data: Application to the Girassol Field, Offshore Angola ... Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data. Computational Geosciences, Dec 2019 Miguel Alfonzo, Dean S. Oliver. Tweet. A PDF file should load here. ...

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Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data

Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data. Miguel Angel Alfonzo og Dean Oliver; Tidsskrift Tidsskrift Computational Geosciences. ISSN 1420-0597 e-ISSN 1573-1499. NVI-nivå 1. Finn i kanalregisteret. Om resultatet Om resultatet Vitenskapelig artikkel ...

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Analysis of time-lapse seismic and production data for ... - OUP

Step 2 involves seismic forward modelling and interpreting the 4D amplitude changes maps and evaluating the seismic ... illustrate how T P is applied to OF P values (i.e. prior to ... these higher errors. Rather than being the best, a Type 1 model indicates the optimal compromise between the quality of seismic and production data predictions ...

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Evaluation of the seismic-window theory for earthquake prediction

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information

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Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of USGS 3D Seismic

May 26, 2010  Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of USGS 3D Seismic Model of the San Francisco Bay Area with Broadband Seismograms

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Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of Usgs 3d Seismic

Description: Evaluating Ground Motion Predictions of Usgs 3d Seismic Model of the San Francisco Bay Area with Broadband Seismograms (left) Snapshot of vertical component dis- placement for an earthquake near Glen Ellen with BDSN and USArray broadband stations (green triangles). (right) Comparison of observed (blue) and computed (red) three ...

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Ensemble-Based Seismic and Production Data Assimilation Using

Apr 08, 2021  In the proposed method, the prior distribution of the model variables, for example the porosity field, is a selection-Gaussian distribution, which allows modeling of the multimodal behavior of the posterior ensemble. ... Seismic and production data are assumed to be repeatedly measured in time and the reservoir model is updated every time new ...

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Can you predict earthquakes? U.S. Geological Survey

An earthquake prediction must define 3 elements: 1) the date and time, 2) the location, and 3) the magnitude. Yes, some people say they can predict earthquakes, but here are the reasons why their statements are false: They are not based on scientific evidence, and earthquakes are part of a scientific process.

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Earthquake prediction using Machine Learning Marionete

Sep 01, 2021  That ensures that we will evaluate the predictions even when there is no earthquake. The following steps were done to achieve that. First, the selected area was divided into a 3D grid. The spatial ...

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Defining and evaluating predictions of joint species distribution ...

Oct 28, 2020  We illustrate different prediction types and evaluation metrics using a case study in which we fit a JSDM to a frog occurrence dataset collected in Melbourne, Australia. Joint species distribution models present opportunities to investigate the facets of species distribution and community assemblage processes that are not possible to explore ...

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Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake ...

Sep 01, 2010  In the specific context of deterministic earthquake prediction, ... For each alarm, we report in Table 4 the minimum magnitude of interest, duration, estimated daily rate of earthquakes and corresponding prior probability. The probabilities represent the chance of each alarm's success under the Poisson reference model, and they vary widely from ...

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Research and Application of High-Production Area Seismic Prediction ...

Nov 21, 2019  The proposed high-production area seismic prediction method can be applied for accurate localization of the high-production areas. When the high-production evaluation index is lower than 0.2, the daily gas production exceeds 1000 The method can provide an effective instrument for evaluating formation productivity.

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A Methodology for Evaluating Component-Level Loss Predictions

Feb 01, 2019  Two example applications of the methodology are provided, involving nonstructural component data from the 2011 M w 6.1 Christchurch Earthquake, for which there is negligible variation in shaking between buildings, and the 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge Earthquake, for which there is notable variation in shaking between buildings. We find that P-58 non ...

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Probabilistic falsification of prior geologic uncertainty with seismic ...

ABSTRACTGeophysical subsurface modeling is often highly uncertain due to limited data resolution. At the same time, a wealth of geologic information, often from databases and outcrop studies, is available to state prior uncertainty on key geologic modeling parameters. In most inversion procedures, these uncertainties are ignored and only a limited number of geologic

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